Leading with data: Navigating AI, budget constraints, and alternative data sources for smarter decision-making

Imagine a school district where every decision—whether it’s selecting an instructional resource, launching an intervention program, or allocating professional development funds—is backed by real, actionable data. Teachers adjust lessons based on immediate/real-time student feedback, administrators identify learning gaps before they widen, and district leaders confidently invest in programs with proven impact or results for their student/student populations. This is data-driven leadership in K-12 education.

Today, school leaders have access to an unprecedented amount of information. Student performance metrics, attendance records, behavioral trends, teacher effectiveness data, and edtech resource analytics can offer a comprehensive view of learning. AI-driven insights further expand the potential for data-informed decision-making. Yet, with this abundance of information comes a pressing challenge: how to harness data effectively to drive real, measurable improvements.

When used strategically, data improves student outcomes, strengthens teacher support, and ensures resources are directed where they are needed most. Schools can identify at-risk students before they fall behind, personalize instruction, and measure the return on investment (ROI) of initiatives with greater precision than ever before. However, just as the promise of data-driven leadership is becoming clearer, financial uncertainty threatens districts’ ability to maintain and expand these initiatives.

The funding crisis: Post-ESSER and an uncertain federal future

For the past several years, Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) funds enabled districts to invest in academic recovery efforts, as well as new technology and teacher support initiatives. However, the last of the ESSER funds expired in September 2024, leaving many districts grappling with budget shortfalls just as they were beginning to see the impact of their investments. Programs that expanded or launched during the pandemic, such as tutoring initiatives, mental health services, and digital learning tools, are now at risk of being scaled back or eliminated.

At the same time, federal education funding is increasingly uncertain. The current presidential administration has signaled an intent to significantly reduce the scope of the U.S. Department of Education. While major funding streams like Title I and the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) require congressional approval to be altered, discretionary funding and department-led initiatives may be vulnerable to significant reductions.

For district leaders, this means a difficult reality. The financial resources that once supported large-scale improvements may shrink, making strategic decision-making more critical than ever. Schools must ensure they are tracking and using the right data to sustain progress, regardless of shifts in funding or policy.

Expanding the data ecosystem

In today’s uncertain fiscal environment, districts must take a broader, more strategic approach to data collection and analysis. Relying solely on standardized state assessments and federally mandated reporting is no longer enough to capture a comprehensive picture of student success. Schools need to integrate multiple data sources to provide real-time insights, track long-term outcomes, and ensure that resources are being used effectively. A comprehensive approach to data collection strengthens decision-making and helps districts adapt to policy changes and funding shifts. A more resilient, diversified approach to data includes:

• Classroom-Based Assessments: Formative and summative assessments that provide real-time insights into student learning, progress and understanding beyond point-in-time standardized testing.
• EdTech Resource Analytics: Digital learning platforms generate data on teacher use, student engagement, progress tracking, formative assessment performance, and instructional resource adoption and effectiveness.
• Student Engagement & Behavioral Trends: Attendance patterns, discipline records, and social-emotional learning (SEL) surveys that help identify early warning signs and intervention needs.
• Teacher Effectiveness Metrics: Classroom observation data, professional development participation, and student feedback that inform instructional improvements and educator support.
• Workforce & Postsecondary Outcomes: Local employer feedback, internship completion rates, and postsecondary enrollment data help measure long-term student readiness and success.

By integrating these diverse data sources, districts gain a more complete and actionable understanding of student learning and program effectiveness. This ensures that decisions are guided by a broad, multi-dimensional perspective rather than a narrow set of federal benchmarks.

The role of AI in data-driven leadership

Artificial intelligence has the potential to transform how districts collect, analyze, and act on data. AI-powered and data driven tools can:

• Predict student performance and identify those at risk of falling behind.
• Personalize learning by adapting content to individual student needs.
• Streamline administrative tasks, reducing the burden on staff.

However, AI also introduces new challenges. Algorithmic bias, data privacy concerns, and the potential for over-reliance on automated recommendations require careful oversight. District leaders must ensure that AI-driven insights are used as one tool among many, complementing rather than replacing human decision-making. AI should enhance educators’ ability to support students while allowing for professional judgment and instructional flexibility. 

Proving ROI: Data as a tool for justifying investments

With tightening budgets, district leaders must justify every investment. Proving ROI is no longer just a best practice; it is essential for sustaining initiatives and securing alternative funding sources. Decision-makers should use data strategically to demonstrate program effectiveness and garner continued financial support by focusing on the following:

• Quantifiable Impact: Using data to show how programs contribute to measurable improvements, such as a 10% increase in literacy rates or a decline in absenteeism.
• Cost-Benefit Comparisons: Demonstrating which interventions provide the highest returns per dollar spent.
• Community & Stakeholder Reporting: Clear, data-rich storytelling to advocate for continued support from state legislatures, local businesses, and philanthropic organizations.

By proactively tracking and communicating success, districts strengthen their case for sustaining vital programs, even in the face of reduced federal support.

Building a sustainable, data-driven culture

The most effective districts are not just data-informed but data-driven. This requires a cultural shift where data is not simply collected but actively used to guide instruction, professional development, and policy decisions. To make data a meaningful part of everyday practice, district leaders should:

• Empower educators with actionable insights. Ensure that teachers receive timely, relevant data that directly supports their instructional decisions rather than overwhelming them with extensive reports. Provide clear, easy-to-interpret analytics that highlight student progress, identify learning gaps, and suggest targeted interventions. Equipping educators with the right data at the right time provides opportunities to adjust teaching strategies, personalize instruction, and respond more effectively to student needs.
• Facilitate the sharing of best practices for data-driven teaching and learning. Encourage collaboration through professional learning communities (PLCs), cross-district networks, and subject- or grade-level groups. By discussing strategies and analyzing trends together—without sharing protected student data—educators and administrators can identify the most effective approaches for improving student outcomes.
• Invest in ongoing professional learning. Provide teachers and administrators with training on how to align their instructional strategies and initiatives with key performance metrics, accurately interpret data, and apply insights to make informed decisions that drive meaningful progress toward district, school, and classroom goals. 

By embedding these practices into district culture, leaders empower educators to use data effectively to improve student outcomes and guide strategic decision-making.

Looking ahead: The future of data leadership in K-12

In an era of financial uncertainty and evolving technology, the ability to leverage data effectively is a defining factor between districts that thrive and those that struggle. The most successful leaders will not wait for federal guidance. They will take control of their own data strategies, using alternative metrics and AI-powered insights to sustain progress and prove the value of their initiatives.

While the funding landscape may shift, one thing remains constant. Data is the most powerful tool district leaders have to ensure equity, effectiveness, and long-term student success.

Lisa Katz is the Vice President of Research and Analytics at Discovery Education. Prior to joining Discovery Education, she served as a faculty member in the College of Education at University of Maryland College Park, and in various administrative roles in Maryland’s public education system.